The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a warning that the global supply chain for aircraft might not achieve normalization until sometime between 2031 and 2034. The association attributes this lengthy delay to persistent delivery backlogs spanning several years and an unparalleled volume of outstanding orders, which continues to put immense pressure on airlines worldwide. In its most recent global forecast, IATA observed that aircraft deliveries began to improve towards the end of 2025, with production anticipated to ramp up throughout 2026. However, the organization projects that the aircraft supply will remain inadequate to satisfy the high demand from airlines for the majority of the current decade. IATA stated that the availability of aircraft remains one of the most critical limitations on the industry’s growth. While deliveries increased in late 2025 and manufacturing is expected to accelerate next year, the demand from airlines is projected to exceed the available supply of both aircraft and engines. The association concluded that the fundamental discrepancy between airline requirements and current production capacity, made worse by irrecoverable delivery deficits over the preceding five years, is unlikely to stabilize before 2031 to 2034. IATA brought attention to the fact that the current order backlog has exceeded 17,000 aircraft, which amounts to approximately twelve years of production, significantly surpassing the historic average of roughly thirty to forty percent of the globally active fleet. The report also indicated that the shortfall in deliveries has reached a minimum of 5,300 aircraft, necessitating that carriers prolong the operational lifespan of their older planes. Consequently, the average age of the world’s commercial fleet now stands at 15.1 years, with passenger aircraft averaging 12.8 years and cargo fleets nearing 20 years. Despite the fleet’s increasing age, more than 5,000 aircraft are currently stored, which further underscores ongoing inefficiencies within the supply chain.
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