Nigeria’s gas market supplied 62% of its gas production to overseas markets in the first quarter of 2026, despite the country’s lack of electricity.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) factsheets show that although an average of 4.832 bscf/day was produced during the quarter, allocations were progressively skewed toward exports, putting pressure on consumers, businesses, and power generation.
The factsheet showed that while production remained relatively stable—January (4.837 bscf/day), February (4.771 bscf/day), and March (4.888 bscf/day)—domestic utilization steadily weakened as export demand intensified.
In contrast, average. Daily gas supplied to the domestic market dropped to 1.906 bscf/day in January, 1.763 bscf/day in February, and 1.855 bscf/day in March, indicating that the local market is increasingly treated as a balancing segment—absorbing cuts whenever export demand rises.
NLNG Limited, which saw a steady increase in gas supply to its six operational trains from 2.931 bscf/day in January to 3.018 bscf/day in February and 3.033 bscf/day in March, is at the center of this change.
The amount of gas available for domestic use was considerably reduced by March, when NLNG alone accounted for almost 62% of the overall gas supply.
The factsheet demonstrated that allocation and offtake choices, rather than any underlying supply shortage, are the main causes of the steep drop in gas allocations to thermal power plants across the country.
In just one quarter, the gas-to-power supply fell precipitously by 25%, from 0.648 bscf/day in January to 0.536 bscf/day in February and 0.485 bscf/day in March.
This contraction is directly related to the ongoing system instability and national electricity shortages that were observed during the quarter.
The average daily gas supply to industrial users stayed relatively constant at 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March. This suggests that inconsistent gas allocation rather than infrastructure constraints is the primary cause of limitations on manufacturing and petrochemical output.
Nigeria’s cooking gas market entered a deficit at the same time.
Supply, which was 5,110 MT/day in January and 4,703 MT/day in February, was unable to meet demand in March, with 4,726 MT/day supply falling short of 5,122 MT/day consumption, leaving a shortfall of about 400 MT/day.
Due of the high retail costs, which ranged from N950/kg to N1,550/kg throughout the quarter, this tightening supply to demand balance has forced many households to switch to other fuels like charcoal and firewood.
The supply of commercial gas fluctuated moderately, increasing from 0.573 bscf/day in January to 0.628 bscf/day in February before declining to 0.601 bscf/day in March. This indicates that commercial customers’ supply planning is unclear, especially in developing markets like CNG-based transportation.
On the other hand, supply to gas-based industries, such as manufacturing, petrochemicals, and fertilizer, stayed relatively stable at 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March, indicating a standstill in the availability of industrial feedstock.
This implies that irregular and unpredictable gas allocation is the main cause of restrictions rather than processing capacity.
Findings show that, despite the Petroleum Industry Act’s intention to protect domestic supply through delivery responsibilities, these commitments are increasingly being neglected as export-oriented allocations take precedence.
In terms of exports, the total flows via the West African Gas Pipeline and NLNG averaged roughly 0.156 bscf/day in Q1, supporting the continuous outward push.
LNG shipments alone increased by 6.4%, surpassing all domestic segments, from 52,857 MT/day in January to 56,241 MT/day in March.
What does the information indicate?
According to Daily Trust, a recent gas shortage has severely damaged numerous power facilities, causing epileptic power supplies nationwide and, in certain situations, blackouts.
Local gas supply problems have been caused by the Nigeria Electricity Supply Industry’s (NESI) growing debt, particularly the debt owed to gas producers, who want to export.
A Gas-to-Power Monitoring Committee was recently established by the federal government to handle ongoing gas supply issues that are jeopardizing the nation’s ability to generate energy.
Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, characterized the action as a “decisive and strategic step” intended to address one of the most important limitations in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).
About 80% of Nigeria’s energy is produced by gas-fired plants, according to Adelabu, but these facilities have been plagued by supply interruptions, pipeline vandalism, growing debt to gas producers, and a lack of industry cooperation.
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