Concerns about Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook were voiced yesterday by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), which cautioned that expansionary fiscal policies, growing public debt, and rising inflation could jeopardise recent gains in economic stability.
The President of LCCI, Engr. At the Chamber’s second quarterly press conference, which took place in Lagos on Thursday, Leye Kupoluyi stated that Nigeria’s inflation rate increased to 15.38 percent in March 2026, reversing an 11-month disinflation trend and increasing cost pressures on households and businesses.
He claimed that rising food prices (14.31%), transportation costs (16.9%), and core inflation (16.21%) were the main causes of the increase in inflation, which was up from 15.06% in February.
He continued by saying that month-over-month inflation increased to 4.18 percent, the highest level since January 2025, as a result of fresh price volatility brought on by both domestic supply shortages and international energy shocks.
The Chamber also voiced concern over Nigeria’s growing debt profile, which as of December 31, 2025, was N159.28 trillion, up N24.98 trillion, or 18.6%, from the previous year.
The LCCI reports that the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio has slightly increased to 41.5%, while the revenue and debt service ratios are still at uncomfortable levels.
Regarding fiscal policy, the Chamber cited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s N68.32 trillion 2026 Appropriations Act, characterising the budget as ambitious but raising questions about sustainability and fiscal restraint.
Based on a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel, the budget surpasses the original proposal by more than N9 trillion.
However, geopolitical tensions have caused oil prices to soar to roughly $115 per barrel, offering a potential revenue windfall.
The LCCI urged the government to prioritise savings, infrastructure investment, and economic diversification over recurring spending, warning that such windfalls could be misallocated without careful management.
According to Kupoluyi, the numbers highlight the industry’s increasing significance to Nigeria’s industrial base and government revenue, but he emphasised that manufacturers still struggle with high production costs brought on by inadequate infrastructure, erratic power supplies, and policy bottlenecks.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to lower the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.5 percent was recognised by the Chamber as a cautious but constructive step towards improving financial conditions.
It did point out that borrowing costs are still high, which restricts small and medium-sized businesses’ ability to obtain credit.
The LCCI also noted that the foreign exchange market was becoming more stable, with the naira rising to about N1,350.79 per dollar in the official window thanks to reforms, increased liquidity, and improved price discovery.
However, in order to preserve stability, it emphasised the necessity of ongoing policy coordination, higher foreign exchange inflows, and a more robust non-oil export base.
The Chamber identified a number of structural issues impacting the business environment that go beyond macroeconomic indicators, such as poor capital budget implementation, an increase in telecom infrastructure vandalism, high import duties on paper and printing materials, and ongoing power supply limitations.
It exposed long-standing inefficiencies in public finance management by revealing that N7.71 trillion in unfinished capital projects from the 2025 budget had been rolled over.
The Chamber cautioned that unpaid contractor obligations and fund release delays continue to hinder economic growth and jeopardise employment.
In order to increase output and draw in investment, the LCCI also urged regulators to implement fully digital systems in order to increase efficiency and transparency.
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