Nigeria’s GDP growth prediction for 2026 was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, from 4.4% to 4.1%, by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Citing growing domestic and international pressures, the IMF revealed this during a media event for the release of its April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report.
Deniz Igan, Deputy Chief of the Macro-Financial Division in the IMF’s Research Department, provided justification for the downgrade, stating that the comparatively robust economic performance observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 has weakened amid new global shocks, especially the ongoing US-Israel war in Iran, which has disrupted non-oil commodity markets and worsened conditions for countries that import oil.However, the war has hampered global economy, lowered non-oil commodity prices, and exacerbated terms of trade for oil importers, all of which are significant sources of regional heterogeneity, she added.
She added that the region is under more strain due to dwindling foreign aid, with bilateral support falling by as much as 16% to 28% in 2025—a trend that is predicted to continue.
The IMF stated that the downgrade for Nigeria in particular reflects growing expenses and conflicting economic signals, with increased fuel, fertilizer, and shipping costs burdening non-oil industries while high oil prices offer some respite.Regarding Nigeria, we have updated growth to 4.1% in 2026, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. This represents a balance between two forces: rising fuel and fertilizer prices, as well as increasing transportation costs, which are anticipated to have an impact on non-oil activity and somewhat compensated by rising oil prices.
Regarding inflation, the fund stressed the necessity of strict monetary policy and close observation of inflation expectations and exchange rates.
As of February 2026, Nigeria’s inflation rate was approximately 15.06% year over year, and the benchmark interest rate was still high at 26.50%, indicating the central bank’s continuous efforts to keep prices stable.
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