Co-hosts Mexico and South Africa open the 2026 World Cup in front of what is expected to be a record television audience at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City on Thursday.
The match is expected to be played in front of a record 1.5-billion people, with the eyes of the world truly on the famous stadium that is so steeped in football history.
There are any number of factors that could decide the game, but we pick five that could be crucial to the final result.
Managing the situation
It will be important to determine who can relax more quickly and who may experience anxiety. Mexico is undoubtedly under pressure; nobody outside of South Africa probably believes that Bafana Bafana has any hope.
However, that expectation, which is felt in the stadiums and by the 1.5 billion viewers worldwide, carries a burden that the Mexican team will feel more and more as the game continues at zero.
Since it would force Bafana Bafana out of their defensive position, an early goal for them would truly calm them down and may result in a nice victory.
The home team will become terrified if South Africa scores first, which will help Bafana catch their hosts off guard.
For both groups of players, this will be the most important game of their careers. Who is going to give in to that pressure?
A strategy for defense
Hugo Broos, the coach of South Africa, has a strategy for tournament football, particularly when he believes South Africa is outgunned.
With the speed his team has up front and their ability to move the ball up the pitch fast, it’s about remaining compact, frustrating the opposition, and hitting them on the break.
It’s not complicated, but it worked incredibly well for the team as they won the bronze in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations.
With the possible exception of a very useful Nigerian squad that they held to a draw in the semifinals before losing on penalties, this is an improvement in quality from the opponents they met there.
However, it only functions when the game is level. Bafana may be cruelly exposed if they are made to emerge from their shell.
Fallibility in the air
High balls into their box have proven to be challenging for Bafana in recent times.
In an attempt to break what has turned into a terrible habit, Broos has added Olwethu Makhanya and the tall Ime Okon to the team at such a late date.
Mbekezeli Mbokazi is a superb defender who is fast on the ground and very powerful in tackles. However, he stands 1.77 meters (5 feet 10 inches) tall.
Mbokazi is ten centimeters shorter than the average height of center backs at the 2026 World Cup, which is approximately 1.87 meters. Okon and Makhanya are both in this range.
Mbokazi needs a tall center-back to counteract his relative shortness, yet opponents can target this region.
Mexico at home
Since a stunning 2-1 defeat to Honduras during World Cup qualification in 2013, Mexico has not lost a home competitive match. After falling behind, the visitors turned things around with two goals in three minutes of the second half.
Bafana must hope for a situation in which the Mexican veil is lifted for a while so they may use it. One objective leads to another, and so on.
However, Mexico will be cheered on by their ardent supporters and are extremely confident in their home territory.
Bafana would have to accomplish something that no one has done in 13 years in order to win. It’s also why a tie would be a great outcome.
Undercooked hosts?
Mexico hasn’t played a competitive match since winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup in July of last year; their last 14 games have all been friendly internationals (W6 D6 L2).
That is nearly a full year, and some believe that this absence of a competitive advantage could be detrimental to them.
During that period, Bafana Bafana qualified for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations and completed a challenging World Cup qualification campaign.
Is there a theory that suggests they may be more resilient than their hosts?
Even while it might seem insignificant, any little bit of an advantage might be useful in World Cups.
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